BANGKOK: A United Nations envoy said here Monday that arrests in
Myanmar "must stop at once" and that the international community must
do more to curb repression by the ruling junta.

The envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, arrived in Bangkok on Sunday to begin a
six-country consultation tour of Asia before heading to Myanmar to
resume talks with the government that began early this month.

"We could do more, not just Thailand," he said. "India, China,
Indonesia, Malaysia and the United Nations, we could do more."

But it was not clear precisely what more he - or the international
community - could do to influence the behavior of a junta that appears
not to care what the world thinks. It has isolated itself by choice
for the past half century and has managed quite well with the help of
a few self-interested friends.

After the junta suppressed huge pro-democracy demonstrations by force
at the end of last month, the United States announced new sanctions
against it, but that action seemed only to underscore the limits of
outside influence.

For the past decade, pressure on Myanmar has been applied on two
contradictory tracks: confrontation through sanctions and a diplomatic
cold shoulder by the West; friendly persuasion and engagement by its
neighbors in Southeast Asia.

Neither approach has worked.

The junta that rules Myanmar, in power for two decades, continues to
oppress its people and remains immobile, making only small tactical
sidesteps when pressured by its critics.

Following Gambari's recent visit, the junta announced that its leader,
General Than Shwe, would meet with the detained pro-democracy leader,
Aung San Suu Kyi, but only if she renounced some of her stated
positions. It named a high-level official to act as go-between with
her, but no further announcement has emerged.

At the same time, the junta has waged a campaign of arrests and terror
that Gambari called "extremely disturbing" and "runs counter to the
spirit of mutual engagement" with the United Nations.

After Thailand, Gambari is to visit Malaysia, Indonesia, India, China
and Japan. He said he hoped to travel to Myanmar sooner than his
scheduled mid-November date.

The sanctions announced by President George W. Bush at the UN last
month were only incremental, elaborating on economic restrictions
first imposed in 1997 and strengthened in 2003 when Washington banned
new American investments in Myanmar.

The new steps bar visas for the junta's leaders - most of whom are
already covered by a visa ban - and freeze any assets they may have in
the United States.

"A little bit of window dressing," said Sean Turnell, an expert on the
Burmese economy with Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia,
reflecting the view of a number of analysts.

Although sanctions have failed so far, several analysts said they
could still be effective if combined with a coordinated international
campaign of engagement and diplomatic pressure.

But the analysts said such a campaign would require more than routine
diplomacy to gain the cooperation of Myanmar's trading partners, none
of whom has shown any interest in joining an economic embargo.

"The lesson so far is that sanctions alone are not enough," said
Michael Green, an expert on Asia at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington. "They must be part of a larger
strategy, and it's not clear yet that the United States or the
international community is prepared to put that effort into the
diplomatic side."

He added: "There is always the danger that the indignation you see
could fade. The junta may have calculated that this is like pulling a
scab off. A brief pain, but the world would soon forget."

This is the moment for the world to show how seriously it does care
about what happens to Myanmar, said Zarni, founder of the Free Burma
Coalition, a lobbying group that has shifted from supporting sanctions
to supporting engagement.

"I don't support sanctions if it's going to turn out to be a lot of
hot air," he said. "The question really is, is Burma a value issue or
a public relations issue? If it is a value issue, the only condition
under which you can claim you believe in it is to prove it by
actions."

A major problem with sanctions is that Myanmar is a sieve. Investment
is flowing in from around its borders, and particularly from China,
for which Myanmar is a source of energy and raw materials and a
strategic route to the Indian Ocean.

"As long as there is an open porthole and the goods could come and the
money could go with no restrictions, there just was no value to the
sanctions," said Josef Silverstein, an expert on Myanmar at Rutgers
University in New Jersey.

Already China has said it considers the protests in Myanmar an
internal affair, and it insisted on muting the language of a United
Nations Security Council resolution last week that "strongly deplores"
the crackdown.

Although China has joined international criticism of the violence, a
Foreign Ministry spokesman in Beijing told reporters last week:
"Sanctions or pressure will not help to solve the issue in Myanmar."

India, which has dropped its condemnation of Myanmar in favor of
economic competition there with China, sent its strongest signal not
through words but through actions. At the height of the protests,
India's oil minister traveled to Myanmar to sign a deal to explore for
offshore gas.

Myanmar's neighbors in Southeast Asia who have been abandoning their
policy of "non-interference" in favor of strong words, issued a
statement saying they were repulsed and appalled by the use of
violence against demonstrators. But none has made a move to cut back
on extensive economic ties with Myanmar.

Even if all these nations could be persuaded to make economic
sacrifices to squeeze the junta, it is not clear how much pain the
generals would feel.

This is a regime that fears and mistrusts the outside world and is
comfortable living in isolation. It is less likely than most nations
to be moved by the enticements of aid and investment, analysts said.

"We are dealing with a regime that essentially wants to be left
alone," said Zarni. "The Burmese regime does not need the West for its
survival. If today half the world stops interacting with the Burmese,
they will happily go home, closing their embassies behind them."